Online Poker

Accepting the 'durrrr' Challenge was the biggest blunder of Patrik Antonius' career, and it may turn out to be the cleverest of Tom Dwan's. After the most recent 61 hand session at Full Tilt Poker that lasted just 9 minutes, Dwan came away with $230,710 to bump his lead up to $1,986,418. If I ever lost $230,710 in 9 minutes, my kneecaps would be in pretty bad shape from all the loan shark attention.

To highlight just how screwed Antonius is right now, allow me to present you with some interesting numbers - if Antonius were to fold every single hand from now until the end of the challenge, he would be out by about $7.5 million. Since the last time he and Dwan were both at $0, at close to the 23,500 hand mark, Antonius has lost maybe $200 per hand. That means he's losing at least a small blind on every hand, and could expect to drop another $3.3 million plus $500,000 for losing the challenge if Dwan's winning ways continue at the same rate. Of course, current signs point to Dwan dominating even more as the challenge continues, so those average losses could end up being much greater.

While the challenge isn't over yet, these sorts of numbers must be frustrating for Antonius, and it can't be helping his performance. When you are looking at a probable loss of around $4 million, with the potential for a loss of more than $8 million, I'd laugh if you told me you didn't feel at least a little bit off your game. It looked like so much fun in the beginning, when Patrik and Tom were trading the lead on a regular basis, but now it's serious business that could cost Antonius a good chunk of his profits from 2009.

Let's not focus entirely on the ill-fortune of Antonius, however, as the 'durrrr' Challenge has been great news for its instigator. Tom Dwan has firmly planted his name in the minds of online poker players, and I would be surprised if his performance against Antonius wasn't a large part of the reason Full Tilt Poker signed him on as a part of Team Full Tilt, especially considering the devastating losses he was being dealt by Isildur1 at the time.

Do you think that Antonius will win, or will you be impressed if he can keep his losses below $4 million? Is Tom Dwan a genius, or just lucky things are working out for him? Let us know what you reckon in the comments.

-Shad